NEW YORK – U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closing at its highest level in more than two weeks, as retail sales data showed a resilient consumer before the Federal Reserve decides on Thursday whether to raise interest rates.
The S&P 500 gained 1.3 percent to 1,978.11 at 4 p.m. in New York, its highest since Aug. 28.
“Everybody’s waiting on the Fed,” said John Canally, chief economic strategist at LPL Financial Corp. in Boston. “We saw a pretty solid gain in retail sales in August and an upward revision to July. People have been worried about a possible spillover from China and that’s just not happening.”
A report Tuesday showed retail sales climbed for a second straight month, a sign consumers may be looking past recent volatility in financial markets. Although confidence has taken a hit from stock-market turmoil and global-growth concerns, the data show households are still putting their savings from cheap energy to work.
Other data showed that while consumers are holding up, factories are struggling. U.S. factory production declined in August by the most since January 2014 as automakers scaled back after a surge the month before and a stronger dollar weighed on demand from overseas customers.
Meanwhile, a quarterly survey said chief executive officers of large U.S. companies are becoming less optimistic about the prospects for the world’s largest economy, with more leaders planning to cut capital spending and employment in the next six months. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index fell to the lowest level since 2012, according to results compiled by Bloomberg.
Speculation has increased that the Fed will delay raising rates as China ignited concern that its slowdown could weigh on global growth. While investors remain confident the central bank will increase borrowing costs this year, traders are pricing in just a 30 percent chance of action on Thursday, down from 48 percent before China’s currency devaluation last month. Odds of a move at the December gathering are 62 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Equities have been particularly volatile recently, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index jumping a record 135 percent in August amid the first 10 percent correction in U.S. equities in four years. Since 1990, the measure of market turbulence known as the VIX has averaged 16.9 when U.S. policymakers started raising rates. If the Fed increases rates this week, it would be the first time since 1946 it has done so within a month of a correction.
The bull market that began in March 2009 is the third longest in history, but it’s the longest ever to go without an increase by the Fed, eclipsing the nearest competitor by more than eight months. Economists are evenly split on whether there will be a hike, with about half the 81 surveyed by Bloomberg predicting a rate increase.
After sliding into a correction, the S&P 500 has rallied 5.9 percent since Aug. 25, though the benchmark is still down 7.2 percent from its all-time high set in May. The gauge has lost 3.9 percent this year.
