Accordingly, I called United and asked if it could transfer me to an earlier flight, which it did, fortunately without any extra fee. So instead of leaving Medford at a civilized hour of 10:11 a.m., I had to get up at 5 a.m. for an 8:11 a.m. flight, leaving me with a boring 3-1/2-hour wait in SFO rather than the convenient 65 minutes I had originally booked. But when departure day finally arrived, that wait shrunk substantially. Our early flight was held up on the ground for an hour and a half before leaving, so we actually arrived with a bit under two hours to connect. And that cushion was appreciated, given that most United Express flights and code-shared flights on US Airways at SFO now use the US Airways gates in Terminal 1, and connecting travelers have to schlep on shuttle buses to United's primary gates at Terminal 3. The net result was that I made the connection comfortably. And to cap the story, I checked the arrivals board before getting on the New York flight, and sure enough: My original flight from Medford has been canceled.
Avoid connecting entirely. Where possible, get a nonstop flight, even if it costs a bit more. And if you normally use a smaller airport that lacks nonstops to your destination, consider driving to the closest hub that does offer nonstops rather than flying. Medford is a tough case; driving takes five hours to Portland and at least six to San Francisco. But any time you can drive to a hub airport in three hours or less, drive. As an advantage, you'll probably find lower fares, as well.
Check your flight's history. If you can't avoid connecting, check on your first flight's on-time record. You have two approaches:
-- Airlines are supposed to post average monthly figures for each flight, showing the percentages of times it was delayed or canceled. When I checked, Alaska, American, Southwest, United, and US Airways all provided links to that information for each flight display; I couldn't find it on Delta but it must be in there somewhere. The problem with this system is that the data are not current: In mid-October, figures show for the month of August.
-- FlightStats (flightstats.com) provides both current (same-day) information and historical compilations for most domestic flights. You can also slice and dice the data almost any way you want. To remove duplication from the display, click the "omit codeshares" button.
Pad your connecting time. Today's typical published minimum connecting times leave almost no slack for any minor glitch. Official times for domestic-to-domestic flights can be as low as 30 minutes. Supposedly, any connection your airline books compensates for connecting times. But those can be misleading: In United's case, for example, connections at Boston, Chicago, Houston, Newark, and San Francisco involve inter-terminal shuttles, some requiring exiting and re-entering security, and many international airports require terminal transfer outside security. Most airlines' official contracts allow you to pad your schedule up to four hours at connecting airports, and if schedules allow, an extra hour or two can mean the difference between making and missing a connection.
(Send e-mail to Ed Perkins at eperkins(at)mind.net. Perkins' new book for small business and independent professionals, "Business Travel When It's Your Money," is now available through http://www.mybusinesstravel.com or http://www.amazon.com)